Where is Naples Real Estate Headed in 2014?

Well, I'm asked this question almost every single day by someone - at some point. After carefully considering where things may head in the Naples real estate market I've decided that it really doesn't matter. 

Here's why:

Real estate in Naples FL is just about the most sought after "dirt" in the lower 48, period. Thus, the only "bubble" we've experienced down here is the "bubble" in our champagne glasses during all those social / charitable events throughout our year. Seriously, the area still is in the top 10 for most millionaires per square mile in the US, so consequently the homes worth $1MM or more that are or were upside down are occupied by the kind of people who can pay the mortgage - or quite frankly, never had one to begin with. 

The reason our prices dropped so sharply was due to subprime / stated income loans AND option ARM loans / interest only mortgage loans on investment properties. The aforementioned really hurt us, and our prices dropped drastically making SWFL one of the nations most violative regions for buying a home.  The good news is that these loans are 2/3's of the way out of our pipeline. 

The bad news is volatility IS South Florida real estate...whether its going up or headed down we seem to lead the way in movement. Most price moves are prefaced by large moves in inventory - which sets up the supply & demand situation. 

In closing - I find that I am a great measure of the state of SWFL's real estate market here in the 239 Area Code. Just to leave you with my insight - in 2010 I carried over 100 listings - YES, over 100. In 2012, I was down to 50 - and then in April 2013 I held under 25 (24) to be exact. This is why our prices had a sharp 15-20% increase. So, what's all this pointing to you say?  Do I have under 20 listings today and have prices increased to 20-25% over where they were at the bottom?  No - sorry to say, the 2nd wave of foreclosures are here and I have upwards of 30 listings under control again. My NEW listing appointments are flying in too - therefore, unless a bunch close by the end of 2013 I predict I'll have over 50 listings. This means sellers need to get their acts together soon while buyers are still thinking about huge price increases. I do believe this 2nd wave to be smaller than most expect - a mere "blip" on the radar. However, expect SWFL inventory to climb a bit in the 4th quarter of 2013 and prices to stay FLAT or decline by 3-5%. 

Brandon A. Sciuto, PA 

REALTOR

Naples Realty Services, Inc. 

720 Goodlette Rd N #301

Naples, FL 34102

239-601-8445